How To Make Good Decisions

Risk Savvy

A fascinating, practical guide to making better decisions with our money, health and personal lives from Gerd Gigerenzer, the author of Reckoning with Risk. 
 
Numbers don't lie - but they often mislead us. From health risks to financial decisions, we often find it hard to make decisions because the statistics have been presented to us by 'experts' who misinterpret the data themselves. Here Gerd Gigerenzer shows how we can all use simple rules to become better-informed, risk-savvy citizens. 
 
'Important, Gigerenzer draws valuable lessons . . . his clear explanations will be a great help to all' Omar Malik, Times Higher Education 
 
'Gerd Gigerenzer argues that when it comes to taking risks in life, we are often much better off following our instincts than expert advice' Oliver Burkeman, Guardian 
 
'Things will only get better, he shows, when specialists, particularly doctors and investment advisers, improve on their appalling record of analysing and communicating risks in their fields' Clive Cookson, Financial Times, Books of the Year 
 
'Gigerenzer is brilliant' Steven Pinker 
 
Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He is the author of several books on heuristics and decision making, including Reckoning with Risk.

Short Cuts to Better Decision Making

Gut Feelings

For anyone who has read Blink and wants to know more

In Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making psychologist and behavioural expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals the secrets of fast and effective decision-making. 
 
 A sportsman can catch a ball without calculating its speed or distance. A group of amateurs beat the experts at playing the stock market. A man falls for the right woman even though she's 'wrong' on paper. All these people succeeded by trusting their instincts - but how does it work? 
 
 As Gerd Gigerenzer explains, in an uncertain world, sometimes we have to ignore too much information and rely on our brain's 'short cut', or heuristic. By explaining how intuition works and analyzing the techniques that people use to make good decisions - whether it's in personnel selection or heart surgery - Gigerenzer will show you the hidden intelligence of the unconscious mind. 
 
 'Fascinating and provocative ... Gut Feelings may well be the recipe for a simpler, less stressful life' &amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Sunday Times 
 
 'Gigerenzer's writing is catchily optimistic and slyly funny ... Devilish' &amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Steven Poole, Guardian 
 
 'The science behind the phenomenon cited in the bestseller Blink ... useful and clearly written' &amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Business Week 
 
 'Gigerenzer is brilliant' &amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Stephen Pinker 
 
 Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He has published two academic books on heuristics, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart and Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox as well as a popular science book, Reckoning with Risk.

Fascinating and provocative &hellip; Gut Feelings may well be the recipe for a simpler, less stressful life

Gigerenzer's writing is catchily optimistic and slyly funny &hellip; devillish

Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He has published two academic books on heuristics, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart and Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox and Reckoning with Risk.

Think less &ndash; and know more. 
 
 A sportsman can catch a ball without calculating its speed or distance. A group of amateurs beat the experts at playing the stock market. A man falls for the right woman even though she&rsquo;s &lsquo;wrong&rsquo; on paper. All these people succeeded by trusting their instincts &ndash; but how does it work? 
 
 In Gut Feelings psychologist and behavioural expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals the secrets of fast and effective decision-making. He explains that, in an uncertain world, sometimes we have to ignore too much information and rely on our brain&rsquo;s &lsquo;short cut&rsquo;, or heuristic. By explaining how intuition works and analyzing the techniques that people use to make good decisions &ndash; whether it&rsquo;s in personnel selection or heart surgery &ndash; Gigerenzer will show you why gut thinking can change your world.

Learning to Live with Uncertainty

Reckoning with Risk

Clear and entertaining, this is an introduction for non-mathematicians.

Gerd Gigerenzer's Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty illustrates how we can learn to make sense of statistics and turn ignorance into insight. 
 
 However much we want certainty in our lives, it feels as if we live in an uncertain and dangerous world. But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us? Are we misled by our ignorance of the reality of risk? 
 
 Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy, while statistics are often presented to us in highly confusing ways. With real world examples, such as the incidence of errors in tests for breast cancer or HIV, or in DNA fingerprinting, and the manipulation of statistics for evidence in court, he shows that our difficulty in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome. 
 
 'Indispensable ... The book will change the attentive reader's way of looking at the world' &amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Sunday Telegraph 
 
 'An important book ... the reader is presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics ... anyone who wants to take responsibility for their own medical choices should read it' &amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;New Scientist 
 
 'Gigerenzer makes clear thinking easier' &amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Evening Standard 
 
 'More than ever, citizens need to know how to evaluate risk ... This book should be pressed into the palms of ' &amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Independent 
 
 Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He has published two academic books on heuristics, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart and Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox as well as a popular science book, Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making.

Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Centre for Adaptive Behaviour and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and a former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago.

"This is an important book, full of relevant examples and worrying case histories. By the end of it, the reader has been presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics...anyone who wants to take responsibly for their own medicalchoices should read it" - New Scientist 
 
However much we crave certainty, we live in an uncertain world. But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us? Are ordinary people idiots when reasoning with risk? 
Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy. Here, he shows us that our difficulties in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome.

Gerd Gigerenzer

How to Stay Smart in a Smart World

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