The Art and Science of Prediction

The Signal and the Noise

The International Bestseller by 'The Galileo of number crunchers' (Independent) 
 
Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost to society. The rise of 'big data' has the potential to help us predict the future, yet much of it is misleading, useless or distracting. 
 
In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we can all learn to detect the true signals amid a noise of data. 
 
 'Remarkable and rewarding' Matthew D'Ancona, Sunday Telegraph 
 
'A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically' Guardian

One of the more momentous books of the decade

A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically

The inhabitants of Westminster are speed-reading The Signal and the Noise... They will find the book remarkable and rewarding

Is there anything now that Nate Silver could tell us that we wouldn't believe?

A surprisingly accessible peek into the world of mathematical probability

Nate Silver is a statistician and political forecaster at The New York Times. In 2012, he correctly predicted the outcome of 50 out of 50 states during the US presidential election, trumping the professional pollsters and pundits. He was named one of TIME's 100 Most Influential People in the world, and one of Rolling Stones' top Agents of Change. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.

Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost to society. 
 
In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the results of every single state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we can use information in a smarter way amid a noise of data - and make better predictions in our own lives.

Nate Silver is a statistician and political forecaster at The New York Times who became a national sensation in the United States when his predictions during the 2008 presidential election trumped most mainstream polls. He is a contributor to The New York Times Magazine and has appeared as a commentator on CNN and MSNBC. He has spoken at TED and SXSW, and was named one of TIME's 100 Most Influential People in the world.

Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events. In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times' political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball. 
 
In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy data, Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters, in fields ranging from the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to terrorism. What lies behind their success? And why do so many predictions still fail? By analysing the rare prescient forecasts, and applying a more quantitative lens to everyday life, Silver distils the essential lessons of prediction. 
 
We live in an increasingly data-driven world, but it is harder than ever to detect the true patterns amid the noise of information. In this dazzling insider's tour of the world of forecasting, Silver reveals how we can all develop better foresight in our everyday lives.

Nate Silver

Masterly… If you — like me — find gambling irresistible, then this section of the book is utterly compelling. It is clear enough to be accessible to the layman but with enough detail and anecdotes to interest those who already know the basics. … [A] highly readable and engaging tour

Engrossing… The River and the Village are among the more memorable and illuminating new social typologies I’ve come across in recent years… A meditation on risk, a study of those most comfortable taking it and an invitation for the rest of us to think about what it means that so much more of our lives now seems to hang on it

A compelling read… Silver covers a lot of ground in this likeable, insightful read, investigating risk-taking ability and how it applies to blue-sky investing. It’s worth the price of the tour

Nate Silver is that very rare thing, a celebrity statistician… in a class of his own… As a guide to our dystopian future, in which everyone is busy updating their priors and sizing their bets, On the Edge is indispensable

One of the most gripping accounts I have ever read

Engaging and entertaining… A glimpse of the economy of the future

Silver had initially intended to write mostly about gambling but ultimately widened his scope as he became convinced that gambling might provide a framework for understanding risk takers in other fields. The result is a book that’s more interesting—Silver managed to land an interview with Bankman-Fried shortly before his arrest in the Bahamas—and more subversive

In On the Edge, Silver compellingly theorizes that humans are in general too risk averse, and that those who can discerningly fight that impulse often benefit greatly in life . . . A thought-provoking interdisciplinary book which covers a host of timely topics from artificial intelligence, political theory and what happens when risk takers go too far

A clever look into a unique realm. An enlightening study of the people who play the game of risk and win

The Art of Risking Everything

In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life. 
 
These professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century. By embedding within these worlds, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI. 
 
The River has increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset—including the flaws in their thinking—is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today. There are certain commonalities in this otherwise diverse group: high tolerance for risk; appreciation of uncertainty; affinity for numbers; skill at de-coupling; self-reliance and a distrust of the conventional wisdom. For the River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it, without going beyond the pale. 
 
Taking us behind-the-scenes from casinos to venture capital firms to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply-reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of powerbrokers and risk takers.

Nate Silver

Praise for On the Edge

Masterly… If you — like me — find gambling irresistible, then this section of the book is utterly compelling. It is clear enough to be accessible to the layman but with enough detail and anecdotes to i ...

Engrossing… The River and the Village are among the more memorable and illuminating new social typologies I’ve come across in recent years… A meditation on risk, a study of those most comfortable takin ...

A compelling read… Silver covers a lot of ground in this likeable, insightful read, investigating risk-taking ability and how it applies to blue-sky investing. It’s worth the price of the tour

Masterly… If you — like me — find gambling irresistible, then this section of the book is utterly compelling. It is clear enough to be accessible to the layman but with enough detail and anecdotes to i ...

Engrossing… The River and the Village are among the more memorable and illuminating new social typologies I’ve come across in recent years… A meditation on risk, a study of those most comfortable takin ...

A compelling read… Silver covers a lot of ground in this likeable, insightful read, investigating risk-taking ability and how it applies to blue-sky investing. It’s worth the price of the tour

Masterly… If you — like me — find gambling irresistible, then this section of the book is utterly compelling. It is clear enough to be accessible to the layman but with enough detail and anecdotes to i ...

Engrossing… The River and the Village are among the more memorable and illuminating new social typologies I’ve come across in recent years… A meditation on risk, a study of those most comfortable takin ...

A compelling read… Silver covers a lot of ground in this likeable, insightful read, investigating risk-taking ability and how it applies to blue-sky investing. It’s worth the price of the tour

Books by Nate Silver

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